The AUD/USD currency pair has recently fallen to its lowest level in over a year, tumbling to 0.6308. This decline reflects sustained selling pressure and a significant breach of a long-term support trendline established in October 2022. As the markets await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy announcement, speculations circulate regarding the potential for a buying opportunity. However, despite these possibilities, the prevailing trend appears decidedly bearish.
Technical indicators provide a mixed yet cautionary outlook. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the stochastic oscillator suggest the market may be oversold, they have not yet reached levels that would typically indicate a reversal or a significant buying opportunity for traders. Hence, even though a pause in the downtrend seems plausible given the proximity to the 2023 low hovering between 0.6269 and 0.6300, the bearish sentiment remains dominant. In technical analysis, these signals suggest that the likelihood of continued downward movement cannot be dismissed.
If the bearish momentum prevails and the exchange rate dips below the crucial 0.6200 mark, further declines could ensue, possibly leading to targets around 0.6100, and even lower to the 0.5980 region established in April 2020. Conversely, for the bulls, achieving a breakout above key thresholds could present an opportunity for recovery. Specifically, surpassing the aforementioned declining channel and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately 0.6440 would signify a shift in momentum. However, before reaching these goals, the resistance level at 0.6388 stands as a formidable obstacle.
Complicating the outlook, both the 50-day and 200-day SMAs have recently formed a technical pattern known as a ‘death cross.’ This formation is often seen as a signal of a sustained bearish trend, amplifying doubts regarding a potential reversal in the immediate future. As such, market participants should exercise extreme caution. Even if there is a temporary recovery attempt near the recent historical lows, the persistent selling pressure below the 0.6565 level could undermine any bullish momentum.
The AUD/USD pair continues to reflect a bearish trend, influenced by broader economic policies and market sentiment in anticipation of the FOMC’s decisions. Traders and investors must remain vigilant, monitoring both fundamental drivers and technical signals as the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty. While the potential for a bounce back exists, the overarching sentiment leans towards further declines unless a decisive shift in market conditions emerges. As always, prudent risk management will be essential in navigating these turbulent market waters.